Where Sanders Might Have His Best Shots Going Forward

March 13, 2016

Bernie Sanders was able to win in Michigan, upsetting Hillary Clinton, with the support of white men. (NPR’s Tamara Keith laid that out in this post this morning). Sanders won 62% of white men in the Michigan Democratic primary, while Clinton won 68% of black voters. That is a big share, but wasn’t enough — and certainly smaller than the margins she’s gotten among black voters in Southern states.

Looking at that difference, between white men and black voters, the chart shows where Sanders and Clinton might have their best shots in states going forward with significant delegate hauls. This analysis is based on 2008 exit polls and takes the difference between what white men were as a share of the electorate as compared to black voters.

A couple notes:

-No exit polls were conducted in Washington state in 2008, but it probably looks similar to Oregon. Census data shows Washington state has a marginally higher African-American population.

-Hispanics were not factored into this analysis, and they will certainly make a difference in California, Arizona and Florida. Clinton won a large share of Latinos in Texas, though Sanders split with her in Nevada, according to exit polls. Sanders also won Colorado, a state with a large Latino population, though no entrance or exit polls were conducted at those caucuses.

Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

You care.

You want to know what is really going on these days, especially in Colorado. We can help you keep up.  The Lookout is a free, daily email newsletter with news and happenings from all over Colorado. Sign up here and we will see you in the morning!