Parts of Western Colorado could see as much as three inches of rain over the weekend with the potential to set records and unleash flooding in some areas.
The unusually wet and warm storm is set to move through the region beginning late Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Kris Sanders, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said the region's cities could see anywhere from 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches, with more at higher elevations.
“Some of the mountains, that could be pockets of three inches, so that's kind of why we're concerned about flooding in burn scars, things like that,” Sanders said.
However, the October rain storm is unlikely to make for a strong start to the snowpack. Sanders said it’s fueled by a tropical air mass leftover from Hurricane Priscilla, making it warm for this time of year.
“It might only be the peaks, if that, that see snow out of this. Maybe when the cold front comes through on Sunday, we actually see some snowfall. Snow levels drop a little bit, but for the most part, a lot of this is rain,” Sanders said. “So you have a lot of rain coming down the mountain where this time of year usually we see snow halfway down the mountain, say like 10,000 feet.”
In anticipation of the storm, La Plata County in Southwestern Colorado is making free sand and sandbags available for residents in flood prone areas. That region could see rain totals from one to two inches.
The storm could also be troublesome for recent wildfire areas. The Elk and Lee fires near Meeker as well as the South Rim Fire in Montrose County and Turner Gulch Fire in Mesa County all left sizable burned areas.
“Those tend to not hold moisture well, so a lot of runoff off of those,” Sanders said.
Mesa County, which is also providing sandbags for property owners, is preparing for possible flooding in Unaweep Canyon where the Turner Gulch Fire Burned. According to the Mesa County Sheriff’s Office, the National Weather Service and Gateway Fire Protection District are coordinating about alerts, should significant rainfall hit burn areas.
While the totals may be high, the rainfall rate may not be the intensity that comes with thunderstorms. That said, Sanders said there is the potential for those rain rates to pick up and lead to the type of flash flooding that could make it risky to venture into the desert landscapes.
“Your dry arroyos, and things like that, your slot canyons, probably not a good weekend (to go there). Again, a lot of those (require) the heavier rainfall rates (to be dangerous), but we could get those at any time in the storm,” Sanders said. “It only takes a couple hours to heat up and build that energy for thunderstorms. So we could see some of those really heavy rainfall rates. They just might be brief.”
